Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Re-Evaluate Russia's Status As A Major Power



Russia's sense of itself as a great power, according to several observers, is one of the most important aspects of its identity (Adomeit 1995; Neumann 2008; Thorun 2009). 

One story has been common among Russia's leadership among several conceivable narratives: discourse on great power status. 

Despite the fact that the roots of greatness and its consequences have shifted from civil and historical to geopolitical and economic, the rhetoric has remained mostly similar. 

Hopf (2002) highlights the persistence of the great power narrative, which has endured not just the country's historical history but also its ideological transformation from the USSR to Russia. 

While the former Soviet Union regarded itself a great power during the Cold War in 1955, it appeared to feel the need to reassure other countries that, while being a big power, it was not an ideologically traditional one. 

"Egypt can be confident that the Soviet Union isn't a crocodile that may suddenly release its jaws and devour up Egypt," said Soviet Foreign Minister Semenov in response to Egypt's fears about its tight ties with the USSR (cited in Hopf 2002, 200). 

This distinction from other great nations was not at the top of the country's agenda in 1999, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. 

Despite the country's ideological transition, the great power narrative persisted, preserving its dominating position (Hopf 2002, 157). 

Despite economic and political hardships after the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia maintained its great power status. 

Evgeny Primakov, Russia's new Minister of Foreign Affairs, considered his major responsibility as intensifying the endeavor "to preserve Russia's national interest" as a great power and establishing a strategy that matched this position in 1996, when the government's support ratings were in the single digits (Primakov 1996). 

Despite their public disputes on what it meant to be great, they agreed that Russia was "doomed to be a great power" simply because it was Russia (Kozyrev 1994, p. 62). 

While both Russia and the West value great power status, it seems that they have distinct perspectives on it. 

Some Russian academics place a premium on Western governments' assessments. 

Krashennikova (2007), for example, claims that status misunderstandings and disparities between Russia and the West come mostly from the West's systematic misperception of Russian situations. 

She goes on to say that Western portrayals of Russia are so twisted that Russians don't recognize their own nation in Western descriptions. 

Other researchers base their arguments on both actors' perceptional discrepancies. 

According to Forsberg (2014), both parties have distinct conceptual understandings of what it means to be a great power. 

He blames disagreements between Russia and the West on misperceptions of the variables that influence Russia's standing. 

As a result, whereas Russians see some parts of their country's character as status-enhancing, Western scholars see them as status-depleting. 

The position of Russia as a great power is determined by a number of objective elements, with a focus on its geographic location (Leichtova 2014). 

Russia is the world's biggest nation, stretching over two continents. 

Security concerns exist in border regions, as well as to Russia's political and economic interests, it is known. 

As a result, Russia's status as a great power is geographically and geopolitically linked to the Russian state. 

Richard Pipes (1995)3, like Leichtova, believes that geography is one of the most important aspects in the formation of Russia's perspective of itself and the world around it, and that it is an integral component of the country's ontological consciousness. 

He connects this ontological knowledge to the economic and geopolitical character of Russia's spatially structured physical security. 

Great power status is directly tied to a state's capacity to endure threats and project power, according to the Realist School of international relations. 

Because of the nature of physical challenges, Russia has always needed to consolidate power into a strong centralized state headed by a strong leader capable of withstanding attacks and projecting authority. 

In addition, geopolitical influences from Asia, which were geographically dictated, aided in the creation of a strong patrimonial state in Russia. 

While physical security issues generated the ontological need for a strong leader, Russian society's communal structure enabled this notion to become more embedded and routineized. 

As a result, Russia's requirement for a strong leader necessitates a guarantee of a strong state and great power status. 

The leader guarantees the population' physical protection from the outside while wielding unrestricted internal control. 

Throughout Russian history, this notion has remained consistent. 

The political system developed in Russia between the 12th and 17th centuries has remained to the current day, with some adjustments (Pipes 1995; Trenin 2002; Mankoff 2009; Tsygankov 2014). 

As a result, this system, which is defined by a strong, consolidated state, is ingrained in the concept of Russian nationality. 

In Russia's pre-revolutionary era, the powerful state took the form of an authoritarian monarchy. 

It was succeeded by an equally powerful Single Party state with a strong monopoly of power during Soviet times. 

According to Andrei Tsygankov (2014), this concept has been transformed into a unique definition of sovereign democracy in modern Russia, which represents the distinctive character of Russia's biographical continuity. 

Another historically ingrained feature of Russian power is the state's network nature. 

Networks, in general, are defined as a kind of less formal interaction that connects people and organizations with similar interests and allegiances. 

Members of the networks in Russia do not operate from the outside, as they would in other countries, but instead occupy high-ranking positions inside the state and are fundamental to it (Kononenko 2011, p. 6). 

Historically, Russian politics was pervaded by networks in almost every aspect. 

They now have a say in how the federal government interacts with the states, as well as foreign policy and the military. 

As a consequence, these allegiances pierced through bureaucratic systems and defunct organizations to define the country's contemporary condition (Kononenko 2011). 

As a result, the policy-making language of a "strong state" and "national interest" is imbued with the public-private players' "special interests." With its complicated practice of decision-making and power management, the "sistema," as recognized Russian political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky (2016) refers to the existing political system, represents one of the main parts of the country's ontological security. 

According to Pavlovsky, the "sistema" combines the ideas that the state has unrestricted access to all national resources, whether public and private, and that it abuses people's rights by turning them into operational resources. 

It is a "deeply rooted feature of Russian society that transcends politics and ideology," and it may endure long after Putin's reign ends (Pavlovsky 2016, 14). 

Its origins may be traced back to Russia's reaction to economic security concerns. 

Because of its geographical position, Russians were forced to work within a relatively limited range of alternatives. 

The hard environment and inconsistent rainfall distribution are the main reasons why Russia has had one disastrous harvest out of every three, resulting in very low yields. 

Furthermore, the very inefficient and wasteful character of Russian agriculture forced the government to continue expanding its agricultural fields in pursuit of new ones. 

Russia aimed to pursue vast rather than intensive agriculture by putting more territory under cultivation. 

Because the rich, attractive land was under the hands of Turkic and Mongol tribes on the steppes, Russian colonists' urge to guarantee physical existence frequently ended in constant battles with these groups. 

As a result, colonization became a basic characteristic of the Russian state, and some Russian philosophers and historians believe it to constitute its very core. 

Russian history, as highlighted by Kliuchevskii (1937) in The History of Russia, is the chronicle of a nation that "colonized itself." This process lasted 400 years, leading the Russian population to spread away from the forest zone, mostly to the east and south, and into regions populated by people of different races and civilizations. 

A structured military organization became necessary for carrying out expansionist goals critical to Russia's economic existence (Pipes 1995, 20). 

A well-known Russian populist, Alexander Herzen, believed that a strong state was necessary to overcome Russia's economic issues. 

Russia, on the other hand, had a conundrum: although its economic security necessitated highly efficient organization, its economic capabilities made this difficult. 

Pipes claims that the consolidation of power and the formation of a patrimonial system symbolized by a strong authoritarian leader was the answer for the rising Russian state (Pipes 1995, 21). 

While Russia's economic fragility may explain its dependence on autocracy, the nature of the country's geopolitical dangers makes this reliance totally justified (Tsygankov 2014). 

The geographical region of Russia is another aspect that contributes to the ontological need for a strong state, represented by a strong leader. 

In terms of geography, Russia lacks distinct borders that would divide it from its neighbors, leaving it vulnerable to its adversaries (Trenin 2002). 

In the east, the rising Russian state was confronted by the Golden Horde, a sophisticated Asian kingdom that had ruled the Slavic tribes' territory for for two centuries. 

In contemporary times, the majority of the country's invasions have come from the West, such as Poland and Sweden. 

This had significant ramifications for a nation that was very vulnerable when it was weak and unstoppable when it was strong (Trenin 2002). 

To counteract these geopolitical dangers, an authority capable of concentrating power and mobilizing resources was necessary. 

In other words, physical security risks generated an ontological need in Russia for a strong, mobilization-capable leader. 

This ontological imperative has endured over the ages and is the ultimate driving force behind Russia's present foreign policy. 

According to Stephen Kotkin (2016), a powerful state that is ready and capable of acting forcefully in its own interests is still the sole guarantee of Russia's security. 

This ability to mobilize became a distinguishing element of Russian authoritarian authority, however it came at a cost. 

According to Veljko Vujai (2015), Russian monarchs built and enshrined a close link between exterior protection and expansion and domestic enslavement. 

To put it another way, external threats to physical security originally necessitated personal sacrifice, which was then used as a pretext to submit all strata of society to the patrimonial monarch over time. 

Beginning with the leadership of Ivan the Great and his grandson Ivan IV, recognized as the founders of the Russian state, the notion of connecting external dangers to domestic subjection became ingrained in the developmental phases of Russian ontological security. 

Russian monarchs used their unrestricted political authority to not only destroy the weaker Mongol empire that had governed the area for centuries, but also to gain control over neighboring Slavic tribes (Tsygankov 2014). 

Because of the ruler's unrestricted political power and "divinity" after gaining independence from the church, such consolidation was conceivable. 

Many rulers, including Peter the Great and Joseph Stalin, have routinized and ingrained the mobilization of power in the face of physical attack in Russian ontological security over the centuries. 

Despite reigning at drastically different eras, they both embraced state consolidation as a means of progressing while dealing with actual or imagined external challenges. 

Stalin's tenure may be described as a reign of terror against those seen to be traitors to the state, and it compelled a modernisation that cost millions of lives. 

Despite their radical nature, his techniques followed Russia's ontologically approved norm. 

This paradigm, which was defined by a strong state and symbolized by a strong leader capable of mobilization in the face of foreign challenges, often received civilian support. 

This support is still going strong today. 

Despite his historical record, according to a recent study performed by the Levada Center (2015) towards the end of 2015, there are twice as many individuals in Russia who regard Stalin in a favourable light as in a negative light. 

The country's Eastern heritage is another reason why Russians consider a strong leader to be a vital component of great power status. 

Many Russian observers emphasize the significant role that Eastern influence had in Russia's handling of authority throughout history (Vernadsky 1963; Gumilv 1990). 

They point out, for example, that Mongol dominance during the formation of the Russian state in the 13th century may be considered a "shattering external event" (Pipes 1995, 54). 

As a result, the Mongol Khans became Russia's first indisputable rulers. 

The formative Russian state was exposed to an Asian style of government, which had a significant impact on the country's ontological security. 

Mongol khans were undisputed controllers of Russia's destiny for more than two centuries, and Russia recognized their effective administration of their large empire by merging its political and administrative institutions under Mongol (Turkic) titles, such as kazna, or treasury. 

Russian princes learnt the workings of absolute monarchy during Mongol domination, of "power with whom one cannot enter into agreements but must unconditionally follow" (Sergeevich 1909, 34). 

However, it was under Mongol rule that Russians learned a political philosophy that limited the state's functions to the collection of tribute (taxes), the maintenance of order, and the preservation of security, but was "completely devoid of any sense of responsibility for the well-being of the people" (Pipes 1995, 75). 

The independence of Moscow's rulers from Mongol tutelage, according to Cherniavsky (1959), was not the freedom of Russia, but rather "a change of dynasty." In this aspect, the khan was most important in the notion of the Russian monarch "as a conqueror of Russia and its people, answerable to no one" (Cherniavsky 1959, 65–74). 

As a consequence of Mongol domination, Russia developed a unique sort of governmental authority known as the patrimonial state, which became stronger after the Golden Horde lost its grasp (Pipes 1995, 57). 

As we have seen, Richard Pipes' arguments aid in understanding the Russian state's distinctiveness. 

He attributes Russia's political regime's uniqueness to the country's historical link between property and political power. 

This, according to Pipes, is the most important divergence between Western and non-Western systems. 

Private property is a domain over which state authorities generally has no control under Western democracies. 

This emotion arose as a consequence of a legal and institutional process that started in ancient Rome. 

The process of authority exerted as sovereignty and authority exercised as ownership divided throughout that period. 

Pipes' major point is that Russia's independence came late in the country's history and was flawed (Pipes 1974, xxii). 

Pipes goes on to say that Russia is a patrimonial state, which is described as a kind of personal authority that is primarily founded on tradition but simultaneously emphasizing personal power (Weber, Henderson, and Parsons 1947). 

The fact that the economic aspect absorbs the political is one of the features of a patrimonial state. 

As a result, the rights of sovereignty and ownership converge and become almost indistinguishable. 

This encourages the sovereign to wield political power in the same way that economic power is used. 

In other words, the "proprietary" aspect of Russian politics is its defining feature; that is, people in power utilize their political authority in the same way that economic ownership is exercised. 

A patrimonial state, such as "sultanism," is one in which those in power retain entire ownership of the land and control over the people who live on it. 

Political power in patrimonial nations is therefore an extension of the sovereign's right of ownership, which extends to both the realm and its proprietors. 

There are no institutional limitations on governmental power, no individual rights, and no rule of law. 

The communal aspect of Russian society has created excellent circumstances for the ontological need for a strong leader to be further embedded. 

Peasants were more reliant on one another as a result of the harsh environment, which discouraged independent cultivation. 

The structure of the peasant family and the hamlet were impacted by the communal character of Russian work (Pipes 1995). 

As a consequence, the ancient Slavs' main social unit was a tribal group, which was linked by blood and worked together as a team. 

With the passage of time, this community disintegrated, giving place to a mir or obshchina, an organization based on cooperative property ownership. 

This peasant commune was a representation of the Russian people historically lacking the individualistic "bourgeois" inclinations that are typical of the West, according to Russian romantic nationalists known as "Slavophiles." In Russia, an individual's pride has historically been drawn from the pride of the group to which he or she belonged (Leichtova 2014, 28). 

As a result, the importance of individual rights in attaining self-fulfillment was long overlooked (Prizel 1998). 

Furthermore, both the founders of Russian anarchism, Konstantin Aksakov and Mikhail Bakunin, agreed that the Russian people were inherently apolitical (Vujai 2015). 

Their intense religious convictions enabled them to embrace Christian precepts such as "give unto Caesar the goods that were Caesar's" (Aksakov 1966, 230–252). 

As a result, the people delegated politics and problems of foreign security to the government. 

These ideas in the primacy of community needs above individual needs have been institutionalized and established in Russia's ontological security throughout history. 

This claim was supported by a November 2014 poll conducted by Russia's independent polling agency, Levada Center (2014). 

The vast majority of Russians (61 percent vs. 36 percent) picked the first option in response to the question "in which nation would you rather live: a country with social equality or a place where you have the chance to prove yourself and achieve a more successful life?" Surprisingly, these responses were similar in the most recent survey in April 2020, when "a majority (65 percent) stated they do not comprehend the substance of the planned changes" ostensibly aimed at reorganizing Russia's political structure in a more centralized direction (Levada Center 2020). 

Throughout the ages, Russian ideas of authority have been routinized by community inclinations and entrustment of political life to the state and its leader. 

The perception of a strong state as a guarantee of physical security and political stability has been historically rooted in ontological security. 

As a result, many Russians are hesitant to leave autocracy in favor of the Western competitive system. 

This dependency is completely rational, given Russia's historical anxieties and economic deficits (Tsygankov 2016, 6). 

According to some observers, the core of Russian history has been the subjection of society to an ever-mightier state, embodied by its leader – one of Russia's ontological security pillars (Vujai 2015, 257). 

Finally, the contemporary style of leadership under President Putin demonstrates the continuance of the ontological story of Russia as a powerful state. 

By "rescuing" an ontologically entrenched concept of Russia as a powerful state, the Russian president earned public support. 

This is the "highest value" concept that has been repeated throughout the country's history (Kotkin 2016, 8). 

Given Yeltsin's presidency's "weakness of the state," the resuscitation of this ontological continuity was particularly vital. 

One of the reasons Boris Yeltsin's popularity ratings fell to single digits in 1999 was because of this break in biographical continuity (Lipman 2016, 39). 

Despite its ontological significance, however, the "strong state" narrative simultaneously empowers and constrains the existing administration. 

According to analysts, there is dread and uncertainty about the country's future when Putin leaves. 

The Kremlin has "no idea" what they'll do without its leader (Pavlovsky 2016, 17).



~ Jai Krishna Ponnappan


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Russia's Perception Of Itself As A Major Power.

 



Given that Russian identity is multifaceted, multidimensional, and vast, it would be naïve to attempt a full examination of Russian identity in one short chapter. 

Identity is a dynamic process of construction and contestation, rather than a static thing. 

Nonetheless, despite the diversity of nation-states, there seems to be agreement on fundamental narratives that dominate a country's biographical discourse. 

One of them, in Russia's instance, is its sense of itself as a major power (Adomeit 1995; Hopf 2002; Kanet 2007; Neumann 2008; Mankoff 2009). 

One of the key characteristics of Russia's identity and feeling of ontological stability is its self-perception as a great power — a vital status position for the nation. 

Indeed, throughout the country's history, the great power narrative connects ontological2 and physical security. 

Russia's identity and feeling of ontological security were historically built in reaction to its physical security requirements. 

With time, Russia's sense of identity was rooted in the frequent employment of this biographical story of tremendous strength. 

Because of this unconscious ontological understanding on the part of Russian leaders, meeting physical security demands became conditional on the country's biographical narrative of great power survival. 

Such a reliance creates a "ontological trap" that may stifle Russia's foreign policy decisions and jeopardize its physical security. 

Putin's foreign policy posture, for example, is less a response to external demands and more a repeating pattern driven by internal variables - imbedded routines of the country's ontological security, as Stephen Kotkin (2016) points out. 

The creation of an agent's ontological security has two crucial features. 

The first are the events that shape the agent's ontological understanding as it develops throughout its formative years. 

The second factor is the degree to which these events have become routine. 

Through habit and experience, this ontological knowledge becomes more established over time, creating predictability and allowing agents to avoid worry about the unexpected. 

These experiences become increasingly ingrained in the agent's ontological security as they become more routine, and agents use them less consciously while making judgments as a result. 

As a result, the fledgling Russian state's experiences defending its physical security demands and projecting power provided a foundation for its ontological self-awareness as a powerful force capable of projecting influence (great power). 

Furthermore, these experiences had to be implanted via frequent usage in order to become the foundation of the country's ontological security. 

Routineization of this kind is subjective and susceptible to social construction. 

What is especially essential is that whomever is in charge of a polity's collective memory determines such social construction and routinization. 

Because memory is very selective, the custodian decides which experiences should be routineized further (Prizel 1998). 

As a result, the custodian has the capacity and authority to either deepen or undermine the usage of ontological practices via neglect (Ledoux 2003; Burton 2009). 

Several historical variables must be examined in order to explain how Russia has navigated its foreign policy via an ontological security lens. 

An overview of the role of geography in influencing the type of Russia's physical security challenges, both economic and geopolitical, is presented at the outset. 

Following that, an examination of how Russia's reaction to these dangers has influenced the formation of its ontological security in three unique but interrelated ways is presented. 

First, Russia's ontological beliefs arose in a consolidated state, symbolized by a powerful leader as a guarantee of physical security and power standing. 

This idea is significant in the context of Russian society's traditionally communal character. 

Second, physical security issues and how they relate to Russia's power standing have influenced Russia's imperial character. 

Unlike earlier empires, Russia's imperial expansion began as soon as the country became a cohesive state. 

As a result, imperial identity is profoundly ingrained in Russia's ontological security. 

Third, the substance of Russia's ontological understanding as a major power is heavily influenced by the West.


~ Jai Krishna Ponnappan


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References 


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Hybrid Warfare & Conflict - Engineering Geo-Political Power, And Spheres Of Influence.

     


    The lack of centralized decision-making in Europe has been shown in a harsh light. 



    Putin, like Machiavelli, may believe that it is preferable to be feared than than liked. Putin can undoubtedly brag about his rise in power. 


    • He has put Americans and Europeans on the defensive, sparked a flurry of high-level talks, and even gotten a written response to his ideas from the US and NATO (proposals which he must have known to be totally unrealistic if not impossible). 
    • Nobody doubts, if anybody ever did, that Russia is still a major force. That much has been shown by its current set of actions in Ukraine. 
    • Respect for Russia, which seems to be a strategic goal in and of itself, is another matter. It's simple to instill fear, but respect must be earned. 



    Differences in ideas between EU Member States create a hole in the absence of EU integration in diplomacy and defense, rather than forging a nuanced but forceful unified perspective. 


    • However, a history of internecine fighting should have taught Europeans one thing: exaggerating the significance of status does not alter the circumstances on the ground. As a result, there's no reason to bemoan his triumph. 


    The United States must fill that power vaccum, with which everyone rallies in the face of Russian sabre-rattling. 

    We have to be concerned about the demise of the European security architecture as we know it.


    IS EUROPE IN DANGER?


    One may threaten Ukraine with a hundred thousand soldiers, but one cannot conquer a Unified Europe. 



    On a GDP the size of Belgium and the Netherlands combined ($1.483 trillion against $1.434 trillion in 2020), one does not begin a great power war against the EU and the US. 


    • Putin may be able to put the future of Europe's security architecture on the table, but he does not have the authority to reverse it. 
    • That can only be done by European leaders who are foolish enough to pull their own nation out of the EU or cynical enough to destroy democracy and the rule of law. 
    • They endanger Europe by fracturing the Union and playing straight into the hands of other forces (sometimes even voluntarily). 



    Natural resource dependency has both positive and negative consequences. 


    Both Moscow and Brussels may threaten each other with economic penalties as a deterrent. 


    • However, sanctions can only be employed once, after which nothing will happen save that both parties would suffer economic consequences, since neither party is likely to submit to penalties and modify its policy. 
    • Economic penalties may signify displeasure and serve as punishment if that is the goal, but they will not alter the reality on the ground, just as a gain of face will not change the circumstances on the ground. 



    Russia will have to negotiate if it wants to create an acceptable and sustainable change to the security arrangements on the European continent. 


    • Negotiations take longer than Russian forces can stay focused on their current action in Ukraine without losing their advantage. 
    • Further unilateral escalation by Putin's Russia will result in a prolonged destabilization of global security and peace that must be dealt with to avert a potential Humanitarian disaster.
    • And, in order to have a chance of meaningful progress, both parties must be ready to make compromises, failing which a military resolution will result in a test of Russia's present invasive  posturing and actions in Europe.



    If Putin was sincere and capable of honoring his public statements, Europeans and Americans would have had to negotiate, as they have said they are prepared to. 


    Because restoring the weapons control and confidence-building framework that has lapsed in recent years would be very beneficial overall to Europe's security. 



    Given Ukraine borders with EU/NATO member states, Any negotiations on the European Security Architecture must, without a doubt, involve all Europeans. 

    Present Russian military mobilization, offenses,  and actions against Ukraine, its invasive occupation, and entry into eastern regions is thus tantamount to an act of war against Europe.


    Only the supranational EU can be Europe's political center of gravity. 


    • Back in 2014, the EU made the strategic choice to give Ukraine a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), to which Russia retaliated by invading the country. 
    • All of the rest, such as NATO deterrence, Normandy negotiations, and EU sanctions, stemmed from the initial decision taken by Europeans via the EU. 
    • Rather than introducing multiple forms, the EU must insist on a core trilateral arrangement if any peace is plausible, with the US and Russia, as a prerequisite for substantive discussions to begin. 
    • Refusing to do so would be siding with Putin, who has made a habit of minimizing the EU in order to undermine European unity. 


    However, it is improbable that sufficient mutual confidence can be developed to reach an agreement on the wider concerns given the unilateral violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity and its political borders. 

    Russia continues to engage in near-constant hybrid measures against Europe and the United States. 



    WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU INVADE AND LOOSE? 


    IS THAT AN ACCEPTABLE OUTCOME, OR CAN FACE-SAVING MEASURES BE CO-DOCTORED FOR THE HIGHER OBJECTIVE OF GLOBAL STABILITY AND PEACE AS UKRAINE PAYS THE PRICE YET AGAIN.


    Can Putin back out now that the least of the risk events has occurred, and the stakes have been increased dangerously high, with no sustainable success in Ukraine to enhance his power other than a minor pro-Russian separatist victory? 


    All of  Ukraine, in its entirety, in its resilience, in truth, is a continuing defeat for Putin. 


    • He drove a divided nation into Western orbit by invading in 2014. 
    • He conquered Crimea but failed to achieve Russia's second goal of forming a sphere of influence throughout the former Soviet Union, despite its great power status (minus the Baltic states). 
    • He will not be able to reclaim Ukraine without launching a full-scale assault. 
    • But it seems to be the least probable scenario: the Ukrainian armed forces will fight with a Western backbone this time, and Putin will not want to lose some of his finest men in a stalemate. 

    It is thus very important for the EU and the US to ensure that Ukraine has the necessary weapons, equipment, and ammunition to fight. 


    • Furthermore, assuming that Russia does not want to blow Ukraine to the ground, it cannot wield its military superiority indefinitely. 
    • An invasion would, in any case, result in military occupation, similar to the annexation of the Baltic nations in 1940. The desire to sovereignty reasserts itself when the occupation is gone, as history has shown. 


    As a result, Russia's insistence that Ukraine not join NATO is damage control. 


    • It also falls within a centuries-old policy of capturing land or establishing buffer zones along Russia's western frontiers to reduce the country's susceptibility to invasion in the absence of natural barriers. 
    • If imposing neutrality on Ukraine is all it takes for Putin to finally acknowledge that it will not be part of any Russian sphere of influence, the West perhaps could have afforded to make the compromise prior to Russia's military actions. 
    • The decision by NATO in 2008 to allow Ukraine and Georgia to join but without a deadline was a poor compromise between an aggressive Bush administration and hesitant Europeans, and the latter are still largely opposed. 


    Neutrality may be seen as another face-saving move by Putin, but such 19th-century sensibilities should not guide European policymakers today. 

    Furthermore, NATO expansion is not a goal in and of itself: new members should be welcomed only when our security requires it; nations that would bring more expenses than advantages and for which we are unwilling to go to war in any case should not be requested. 



    Neutrality cannot be a unilateral compromise. Such an unrealistic expectation is a trigger and provocation for a larger widespread conflict that will be without bounds.


    • Other than dispersing its forces, Russia has failed to make a genuine surrender, since they may be concentrated again on a whim. 
    • Moscow has failed to stop supporting armed separatists in the Donbass and allow Ukraine's government in Kiev to reclaim control of the country's whole continental territory. 
    • That is true, but it says nothing about the Crimea along with the Donbass, which is the price Ukraine is having to pay. 


    That would not be fair, because, in the words of Bismarck, 

    "we are not operating a judiciary, we are establishing policy." 

    Putin, on the other hand, may be unwilling to make this compromise. 


    Furthermore, if he is unable to reclaim Ukraine, he may decide that he does not want it to function. 


    He will not want to see a well-functioning democratic Ukraine begin to exert any kind of appeal on his own populace, therefore this is a serious danger. 

    (And neutrality would have no bearing on the DCFTA.) 

    Russia may thus conclude that, despite its limited resources, it can get more out of a stable but (in its eyes) unsatisfactory deal by triggering another escalation when it sees fit, rather than a stable but (in its eyes) unsatisfactory deal, even if instability comes at the cost of additional sanctions. 


    Sanctions along with Hybrid War Operations must be activated and  implemented, notwithstanding the fact that sanctions are unlikely to compel Russia to recede beyond its dictates and  unpredictable volatile leadership. 


    • Putin may yet choose to restrict to a military effort, such as seizing the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea. 
    • Russia would suffer fatalities, but it would establish a permanent Russian military presence in the Donbass as a fait accompli. 
    • Another possibility is a repeat of the cyber-attack on 14 January. Both of these situations might result in extra severe retaliations. 
    • The standoff would persist in all three scenarios, and perpetual instability would rule, leaving little hope for effective discussions on the larger security architecture. 


    The Desperate and Blind Pursuit Of Obsolete Spheres Of Influence In an Increasingly Connected Globe. 

     

    •  In mid-January 2022, when the West was focused on Ukraine, In Kazakhstan, Russia interfered immediately and effectively. 
    • Some 2000 Russian forces, operating under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and at the request of President Tokayev, assisted him in maintaining his grasp on power. 
    • In November 2020, Russia dispatched 2000 soldiers as peacekeepers at the request of another CSTO member, Armenia, after brokering a cease-fire between its ally and Azerbaijan, ending another conflict over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. 
    • In November 2021, Russian involvement was required once again to stop fighting that had broken the cease-fire. 
    • Georgia's predicament, on the other hand, is very comparable to that of Ukraine. 
    • Russia secured the separatist areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia during the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict, eventually recognizing them as republics. 
    • Approximately 10,000 Russian soldiers are now stationed there.  However, short of a full-scale invasion, the most Russia can hope for is a prolonged stalemate and the capacity to increase tensions anytime it wants. 


    The conclusion is that Russia continues to operate as a security guarantee in former Soviet countries when the government and military forces, with or against the populace, embrace a largely Russian orientation. 

    Belarus, for example, falls within this category. 

    However, once a nation has shifted its orientation to the West, Russia may make things difficult for it, such as stopping it from joining the EU or NATO (though membership is not on the table anyway), but it cannot force it back into the fold. 


    Meanwhile, China is competing with Russia, and in many cases has already surpassed it, as a trade and investment partner in practically all former Soviet countries. 

    In 2013, Kazakhstan hosted the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative. 

    There has formed a de facto division of labor that fits Beijing well, but one would wonder whether it really satisfies Moscow: when Russia acts as a security guarantor, it maintains the stability that enables it to no longer transform its military might into commensurate political and economic dominance. 

    As a result, an exclusive Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union is a pipe dream in reality. 


    Russia doesn't have an option but to share power with China in a more or less Master-Junior Partner Bond. 


    Outside of the former Soviet Union, Russia has established a military presence, either directly or via the Wagner Group's mercenaries, in the Central African Republic, Libya, and now Mali. 

    The key success here, too, is continuing instability, which serves our goals. 

    For Russia, the eastern and southern edge of Europe is one theater in where it may exercise its nuisance power at a cheap cost. 

    Even in a nation like Mali, which is so reliant on European economic and military aid, Brussels should be considerably more concerned about its incapacity to prevent it from doing so. 

    But, although Russia may strive to entrench itself, it lacks a genuine alternative project to offer these nations, other than ensuring the regime's or claimant's security, which it opportunistically supports. 

    As internal politics change, such ties are prone to unravel. 

    The exception is Syria, where Russian assistance insured the survival of a long-time partner, but that relationship, too, is unlikely to outlast regime transition if it ever occurs. 


    Russia is also expected to fall farther behind the United States, China, and the European Union in terms of political clout and economic success. 


    It will continue to be quite simple to use its annoyance capability. 

    For the time being, Russia's military might has allowed it to punch above its political and economic weight. 

    However, keeping its limited friends, much alone acquiring new ones, will grow more difficult as other nations make more appealing political and economic proposals. 


    Will this encourage Moscow to consider a more cooperative grand strategy rather than a hostile one? Or will it continue to associate tremendous power with arrogance and aggression? 


    For its part, the EU must remain laser-focused on its most important goals: defending its own way of life while preventing instability from spilling over from either its eastern or southern flanks. 

    Stable neighboring nations that make their own sovereign decisions are a useful tool in achieving that critical goal. 

    The EU's use of nuisance power can never be an aim in itself; although it must consider how to respond against Russian neighbors, good neighborly relations must remain the ultimate goal. 

    Whatever course Putin and his successor choose, the EU must be open to conversation at all times, following the motto: cooperate when possible, but push back when necessary. 

    However, this will need the development of a much stronger European reflex in all EU member states. 

    If Europe's strategic center is a vacuum, neither collaboration nor pushback will occur, and the EU will be constantly unsettled by the next bold action from another state.


    ~ Jai Krishna Ponnappan


    You may also want to read and learn more about Global Geo Politics, Conflicts, And Conflict Resolution here.




    Sources & References:


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